Sunday, 26 June 2016

Brexit #1

I am recording my thoughts about these uneasy days. I think it will be interesting to read back on them a couple of years from now. So, a time capsule of sorts.

This is a mail I just sent to a good friends in the US of A, who writes:

"I thought the Brits were a safe haven of considered thought and rational behavior!  So much for that image...."

the short story (I plan to have a running blog on the building consequences of this decision):  not any more. Britain just lost all its credibility as a stable, rational country that is good for business. A global disaster.

the populist right managed to convince a slim majority of the population to make a huge decision whose consequences they do not understand, and against their own interest. A masterpiece.
look at the demographics here and here:

Basically, the older population and the working class were duped into supporting a right wing nationalist agenda on the promise they would see fewer immigrants and less money going out of the country and paying into the EU.
What will probably happen instead is that pensioners will lose out on higher prices (for all imports, for starters, as the GBP will at least initially trade much lower and trade barriers will go up again at the same time), workers will have to deal with a shrinking economy, and any deal to trade with the EU as those made with Switzerland and Norway, for example, will cost the country just as much as it does now, but with a lot less control.
Oh and there may be fewer immigrants, but the country is really going to lose the highly skilled ones  (like myself) with jobs in finance, academia, and all the sectors where this country should really keep investing.

Basically, a complete clusterfuck.
you can read a lot about this. I liked this early piece: With a single vote, England just screwed us all